After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile horizontal track in Phoenix for the fourth race of the season.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 endings dating back to last year, but both drivers are going to take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest odds to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and both won at the track last season. This weekend, if Harvick were to win, he’d join an elite group, becoming just the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races at a single track; joining Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

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In three of the previous four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his win during last year’s playoffs — the first under the new configuration of the track.

Phoenix’s track is comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire and it’s no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at these racks. Busch has won 2017’s fall race at New Hampshire and the previous two races in Richmond. Harvick won the most-recent race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races in Richmond.

But unlike in those preceding races, all motorists will be using a new automobile installment executed by NASCAR, one different from what we watched the last two weeks in Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year teams will utilize a spacer — and no ducts that are aero — for the very first time. They’ll use a engine in Phoenix rather than their engine in Vegas. NASCAR expects to find a car with a response time on the throttle. The package that is new could close the gap Busch and Harvick have had on the area.

So far in 2 races with the slightly differing rules package of NASCAR, Ford has led 65 percent of the laps and has five consecutive stage wins. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper motorist. He was third in New Hampshire’s similar design final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth in last year’s fall race in Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and we like him in a matchup with Kyle Larson in -110.

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Odds to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in Phoenix

Odds Supplied by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 500/1

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